CHAPTER
III
THE
CRITICAL MOMENT
THERE are two hypotheses as to the method by which changes of
so far reaching a character as those we have been discussing
might come about, one of which may be described as the evolutionary
method, and the second as the revolutionary. For my own part
I am inclined to believe in the probability of a combination
of the two.
The
outstanding fact in regard to the existing situation in the
world at the present time, is that it is unstable. No person
whose outlook upon life extends even so far as the boundaries
of his village, can fail to see that a change is not merely
coming, but is in progress; and it requires only a moderately
comprehensive perception of the forces which are active in
every country of the world to-day, to realise that the change
which is in progress must proceed to limits to which we can
set no bounds.
That
is to say, the break-up of the present financial and social
system is certain. Nothing will stop it; "Back to 1914" is sheer
dreaming; the continuation of taxation on the present scale,
together with an unsolved employment problem, is fantastic;
the only point at issue in this respect is the length of time
which the break-up will take, and the tribulations we have to
undergo while the breakup is in progress. But while recognising
this, it is also necessary not to fall into the error which
has its rise in Darwinism; that change is evolution, and evolution
is ascent. It may be; but equally it may not be. That is where
the necessity for the revolutionary element arises; using, of
course, the word revolutionary in a constructive sense.
There
will probably come well within the lives of the present generation,
a period at which the blind forces of destruction will appear
to be in the ascendant. It does not seem to me to be necessary
that this should be so, but it does seem to be probable.
There
is, at the moment, no party, group, or individual possessing
at once the power, the knowledge, and the will, which would
transmute the growing social unrest and resentment (now chiefly
marshalled under the crudities of Socialism and Communism) into
a constructive effort for the regeneration of Society. This
being the case, we are merely witnesses to a succession of rear-guard
actions on the part of the so-called Conservative elements in
Society, elements which themselves seem incapable, or undesirous
of genuine initiative; a process which can only result, like
all rearguard actions, in a successive, if not successful, retreat
on the part of the forces attacked. While this process is alone
active, there seems to be no sound justification for optimism;
but it is difficult to believe that the whole world is so bereft
of sanity that a pause for reflection is too much to hope for,
pending a final resignation to utter catastrophe.
When
that pause occurs mankind will have reached one of those crises
which no doubt have frequently been reached before, but which
so far have failed to avert the fall of humanity back into an
era of barbarism out of which new civilisations have slowly
and painfully risen.
The
position will be tremendous in its importance. A comparatively
short period will probably serve to decide whether we are to
master the mighty economic and social machine that we have created,
or whether it is to master us; and during that period a small
impetus from a body of men who know what to do and how to do
it, may make the difference between yet one more retreat into
the Dark Ages, or the emergence into the full light of a day
of such splendour as we can at present only envisage dimly.
It
is this necessity for the recognition of the psychological moment,
and the fitting to that moment of appropriate action, which
should be present in the minds of that small minority which
is seized of the gravity of the present times. To have a clear
understanding of the principles which underlie the problem is
essential to those who may hope to play a part in its solution;
it is even desirable that skeleton plans should be in existence
to meet the situation as it can be seen to exist; but nothing
can be more fatal to a successful issue than the premature publication
of cut-and-dried arrangements which are likely to be out of
date before their adoption can be secured. As the world is constituted to-day, effective action is only possible through certain
centres of influence; that is to say, short of complete social
anarchy as a preliminary to a new world, it is necessary to
work through the arrangements which have grown up in the system
with which we are all familiar.
While
the evolutionary process depends most probably on the formula
to which the present civilisation is working, and, given adherence
to that formula, is independent of human psychology, it is fairly
obvious that the effectiveness of "constructive revolution"
does depend, to a large extent, on this latter factor alone.
In other words, although we can float down the Rapids and over
the Falls without any struggling either on our part or on the
part of those with whom we come in contact, the possibility
of avoiding that uncomfortable journey, if there remains a possibility,
requires definite exertion. And if the cataract must be run,
a safe arrival on the waters of the placid lake which may lie
beyond, is surely conditional on some sort of expert navigation.
If the present onerous taxation is continued into an era of
rising prices, we shall not have long to wait.
There
are certain factors operative in human psychology which it is
possible to recognise as helpful or the reverse. During a visit
to New York I saw considerable numbers of fervent men and women
carrying sandwich-boards and collecting-boxes through the financial
quarters in and around Wall Street, bearing on them the legend,
"The Salvation Army is Father Knickerbocker's best friend."
It is perhaps hardly necessary to explain that Father Knickerbocker
is generally taken to represent the respectability of solid,
or perhaps preferably, liquid capital. That is to say, it may
be taken as a scientific statement of fact that one of the most
dangerous opponents of a better, cleaner world, is the sentimental
spirit which is entirely concerned with the beauties of a prospective
Heaven, whether that Heaven is theological or moral. The head
of the institution to which I have just referred, has recently
elaborated the preceding statement by an intemperate attack
on the "dole," basing his objection to it on the "demoralisation"
of the recipient and not, of course, on the financial jugglery
which accompanies it - an attitude entirely similar to that
of the Puritan in his abolition of bear-baiting; not because
it was cruel to the bear, but because it gave pleasure to the
populace. The practical outcome of this Puritanism is always
negative. In short, there is a type of sentiment which, under
existing conditions, is able to attain great respectability,
but which can, with very little difficulty, be identified with
the formalism against which the Great Reformer of nineteen hundred
years ago launched his most bitter invective; and wherever that
is found, the prospect of effective assistance is not encouraging.
Again,
it is only rarely that we find a response from those who have
been "successful in business." On the whole, the most promising
type of mind is either that which has always been free from
financial anxiety and yet, at the same time, is familiar with
the technique of the modern world, or, on the other hand, the
worker, whether by hand or brain, whose incentive is very largely
artistic in origin, in the ranks of whom may of course be included
practically all persons of really scientific temperament. Most
unfortunately this latter class is, of all the divisions of
Society, that least equipped, either by temperament or organisation,
to exercise effective pressure.
Since,
however, most men are complex characters, it is probably true
that an effective appeal can be made to a large majority if
the appeal is made in the right way. It is my considered opinion
that the right way with most people is to discountenance severely
any discussion of the general advisability of such matters
as we have been considering, and, as far as possible, to put
the appeal in the form: "Suppose that you yourself were offered
certain conditions, such as we suggest, under which to carry
on your business or your own personal economic life, would you
accept them?"
With
a majority of persons there is (no doubt as the result of the
collective hypnotism generally referred to as education) a tendency
to uphold a social ideal from which their personal existence
is a continuous effort to escape. That is to say, their social
ideals and their social actions bear about the same relation
to each other that the aspirations of the average individual
in regard to an immediate translation to Paradise, as expressed
on his occasional Sunday church-going, do to his wishes as expressed
by his business activity during the week, and his concern at
the onslaught of a cold in the head. If he can be kept on the
more or less solid ground of his individual tastes, and the
means which would enable him to achieve them, he is amenable
to reason; let loose on social ideals, and we generally have
something of about equal value to the theology of the Salvation
Army - a thing which clearly has definite uses in connection
with a given set of premises, but is not a hopeful source from
which to look for a new direction of objective - is, in fact,
frequently a vicious obstacle.
It
hardly needs emphasis that a constant binding back of proposals
for reform, to the moving events of the world, is of the utmost
value; in fact, if it be possible to clarify the relation between
the analysis of the financial system, the foci of discontent,
and the logical remedy, with sufficient emphasis and over a
sufficiently wide area, then the stage will be set for the greatest
victory which the human individual has, within history, achieved
over the forces which beset him to his fall.